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February 14, 2008 12:56 AM UTC

Colorado and the General Election

  • 4 Comments
  • by: Kristopher Larsen

I hope the unaffiliated super-delegates (I saw a list of them in the Potomac primary post from yesterday) are paying attention to the polls that are coming out today. I assume they all have an interest in seeing Colorado vote for the democratic candidate next fall, whichever it may be. Unfortunately, the Rasmussen general election poll that came out today makes it abundantly clear that Colorado’s overwhelming choice off Obama during last weeks caucuses was not a fluke.

The new polls have Obama beating McCain 46% to 39% next fall while McCain trounces Clinton 49% to 35%. Certainly this is an indication of how Colorado’s independent voters will break, but it’s also clear that if the super-delegates of Colorado end up opposing the will of last weeks voters and effectively giving Colorado to Clinton instead of Obama, there will be repercussions. Speaking for myself, I’d be quite happy voting for either Clinton or Obama next fall (though I will probably give more to and go to a greater effort for Obama because he inspires me to a far greater degree than Clinton). But I will be watching who Colorado’s super-delegates chose to support and will probably have a hard time supporting those that act counter to the clear choice of Colorado.

There’s more information on today’s polls including interesting stats on favorability/unfavorability here:

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Comments

4 thoughts on “Colorado and the General Election

  1. that it’s freakin’ February 13th!  There are 265 days until the election.

    Lest we forget, 265 days before the 06 election there was noooo way dems would win control of congress…but we did.

    265 days before the 04 election there was noooo way Dems could beat Bush in Nov.  Came pretty damn close as I recall.

    265 days before the 2000 election there was noooo way Gore would lose in Nov.  That didn’t work out too well.

    And of course, 265 days ago, there was noooo way a guy named Barack Obama was going to be leading in he delegate count ahead of Hillary Clinton.

    I love polls…I almost have to…but this far out they don’t mean much…  If HRC is the nominee her numbers will even out.  History tells an interesting story…

  2. Obama has won more states

    Obama: 22

    Clinton: 10

    Obama leads in the popular vote

    Obama: 9,332,720 (52%)

    Clinton: 8,648,569 (48%)

    Obama leads in pledged delegates

    Obama: 1139

    Clinton: 1003

    After sweeping the past eight contests by large margins, it now appears that Senator Obama has an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. Senator Clinton would have to get 56% of all the remaining delegates in all contests in order to take a pledged delegate lead. This appears extraordinarily unlikely given the history of contests so far.

    There are only 1025 pledged delegates remaining, and since our system is not a winner-takes-all, it’s impossible for either candidate to win the needed 2025 in pledged delegates. Clinton needs 589 pledged delegates to overcome Obama by the Convention.

    Considering states such as Hawaii, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, and South Dakota, are leaning towards Obama (without crunching the numbers), it appears Clinton would need to win by more than 20% in the remaining states (especially Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania) which she hasn’t been able to do thus far, so it seems highly improbable that she’ll be able win the 589 pledged delegates she needs.

    Reading the numbers, and not wanting to be anti-democratic, superdelegates are running towards Obama (ok not really but 9-2 in the last week), including Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign manager.

    So the real question is, how long is Clinton going to drag this thing out? If she takes this to the Convention looking for a brokered back room deal, she’ll not only break up the party just 3 months prior to the general election, but will have handed over the White House to John McCain, ensuring 4 more years of war in Iraq.  

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